What does the 'Planning fallacy' refer to?

The 'Planning fallacy' refers to the phenomenon where individuals or groups underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions while overestimating the benefits of those actions. This leads to an unrealistic optimism about how long a task will take to complete. It is common for people to believe they can complete a project faster than they realistically can, often due to overlooking previous experiences with similar tasks or failing to consider potential obstacles.

This cognitive bias can affect not only personal projects but also larger-scale planning in educational settings or workplace environments, leading to consistently missed deadlines and inflated expectations. Recognizing the planning fallacy can help educators, leaders, and students develop more accurate timelines and project plans, ultimately enhancing productivity and reducing stress associated with unmet deadlines.